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Offline nophead

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Corvid19 Graph
« on: March 25, 2020 »
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I made a graph from the numbers on Janet Anscombe's blog.

The green line is the logarithm of the total cases. A straight line would indicate perfect exponential growth and the gradient is proportional to the rate at which cases double. It currently seems to be about every four days.

One would expect to see a downturn after the lockdown delayed by the incubation period. There is no obvious effect yet but people showing symptoms now could have been infected before the lockdown and will still also be infecting the people they are locked down with.

« Last Edit: March 25, 2020 by nophead »

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2020 »
Looking a lot better now. The number of new cases per day is starting to fall from around March 28th.

In the UK we seem to have gone from exponential to linear with about the same number of new cases per day. I.e. each person infects one other on average.


Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2020 »
nophead, we don't need graphs & statistics, this is from someone who suggests we can get flights via the
epicentre of the virus in Spain, Madrid, get real there are thousands of us unable to get flights & to be honest we could not give a sod about your figures,  we can see how many are infected & dying we are not on the moon.

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2020 »
Well some people find graphs useful to see the trends in numbers and get an idea when this might end. Can you spot the inflection where the numbers go from exponential growth to linear without a graph? This is a key point where the exponential turns into a logistics curve.

The reason you have trouble getting home is is you ignored the UK government's advice to leave before March 24th, don't blame me.

I watch the flightradar24 and I didn't see a single flight from TFS yesterday and only one to Dusseldorf today by Eurowings. The UK flights finished around the 24th. Only the Germans and Spanish seem to be flying now.

Dominic Raab announced repatriation flights but Janet reports this : https://www.janetanscombe.com/news/uk-government-announces-system-whereby-its-partnership-with-airlines-will-fly-tourists-stranded-abroad-home.html

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After the Foreign Secretary’s statement yesterday, we’ve had many queries asking about repatriation flights from Spain. There are still commercial options running across Spain, so we are not planning repatriation flights.

So I think either you brave travelling through a Spanish or German airport or stay on Tenerife.


Offline pilgrim

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2020 »
Bleedin ell Nobhead, you are super smart, and maybe correct! Us mortals are just looking, hoping for an end to this all! Thankyou and well done for your graph. Self satisfying your ego is great! Maybe email the cobra committee, sure they may like it. Make sure you send your PHd cert first. I am also a rich smart ass, but know when to realise, it is something very special we are going thru! And not to I am stupid people off.

Offline pilgrim

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2020 »
And another thing! don't do emails after 6 cans of beer! x

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2020 »
I don't understand why purely factual information gets such rude and negative responses.

There are graphs for all countries in several places but I can't find a graph for the Canaries and Tenerife but I can find the numbers, so I make a graph to try and make sense of the numbers for myself. I thought other people might find them useful, so I shared them here. No Phd, it is just high school level maths.

I understand some people might not be interested but they don't have to look. It's not like I posted something offensive.

Also unhappy was looking at how to get home, so I thought I was being helpful saying what I thought the options were. Again I get abuse. Yes flying is not advisable if you are in the at risk group, you should be self isolating, not mixing with a plane full of people. If you are not in the at risk group then flying via Germany or Spain is a valid option. Not much different than flying to the UK direct.


Offline Tanemera

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2020 »
Bring back Georgie!  Life was simpler then.  Everyone is entitled to their opinions, some find them interesting and others don't, but not much point in having a Message Board if nobody contributes.

Offline Georgie

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2020 »
 I totally agree and don't post often because some people are a bit over the top

I find the graph and information very informative

But I will again be killed for saying so

Ps just booked for December and I lose anything it will be the deposit

Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2020 »
Tanamera, You beat me to it, as for asking nophead about flight info, as I have said before he must be on another planet.

nophead,  I have never asked you for travel info, the reason why is my wife was in the travel Industry for over 30 years, and was in fact a tour operations manager for a travel company, also our best friends in the UK own a independent travel agency they can both hands on tell me more information than your graphs or you can.

As for your graphs they tell us that the virus is spreading and a lot more people are dying around the world, in this day & age most people have a TV, Internet or social media, try looking at one of them & save your time on the graphs, like we do

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2020 »
I am this planet where there are no UK flights from Tenerife South.

Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2020 »
nophead, incorrect again, Tui are offering flights from the 19/04 only problem is they are using a charter airline that gets 2 out of 10.

Jet2 are offering flights from the 01/05 & they have a large sign on there site saying you can get a free flight change until the 30/04 of course when they have no flights going.

Ryanair were also offering flights from the 01/05 but they have now cancelled those and the date is now 10/05.

By the way these airlines are so worried about their passengers that they have left stranded, they keep increasing the prices, also they are not repaying back the money for flights they have already cancelled, great customer service

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2020 »
They have all grounded their fleets and laid off their staff, so I don't know why they still offering flights in the near future but not at the moment. Perhaps they think it will be over soon. What will have changed in a month or two's time?

We just booked EasyJet seats in November for a bargain £29 but I will be surprised if borders are open by then and EasyJet is still in business. For a total of £116 for two return it is worth a gamble.

Offline Tanemera

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2020 »
Maybe this will help.....

I heard a doctor on TV saying in this time of Coronavirus and staying at home we should focus on inner peace. To achieve this we should always finish things we start and we all could use more calm in our lives. I looked through my house to  find things I'd started and hadn't finished, so I finished off a bottle of Merlot, a bottle of Chardonnay, a bodle of Baileys, a butle of wum, tha mainder of Valiumun srciptuns, an a box a chocletz. Yu haf no idr how feckin fablus I feel rite now. Sned this to all who need inner I am stupid. An telum u luvum. And two hash yer wands, stafe day avrybobby!!!

Stay safe and have a great day!

Offline Davymar

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #14 on: April 03, 2020 »

Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2020 »
Tanamera, Cheers ust playin Mercadon ont runnning out of vine agin.

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #16 on: April 03, 2020 »
Yes there wasn't much to do apart from eat and drink when we were locked in our apartment and we put on a few pounds.

Managed to lose it again in the UK and dry out a bit as we have a lot less booze stockpiled here. That is important if you catch the Covid19 because you need your organs in good shape and I read 70% of those who have died were obese. Not sure if that is a factor or simply that is the percentage of obese people in that demographic.

Anyway the UK government said exercise was important because people need to get fit to fight the virus.

Offline blarer

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #17 on: April 03, 2020 »
Perhaps you can do a graph to prove if it is a factor.

Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2020 »
No room for the booze ? must be all the toilet rolls taking up the space

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2020 »
Plenty of room for both. Just at a low ebb when we left in November as we ran things down for being away for nearly 5 months. If we had known we could have had a lot more wine but beer doesn't have a very long use by date.

Offline angiebabes

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #20 on: April 04, 2020 »
. If we had known we could have had a lot more wine but beer doesn't have a very long use by date.

Wow!! Thanks for the heads up (or no head is presumably the case with over date beer).  I see the expiry date on loo rolls is quite short too!

Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2020 »
Just thought people like my wife & myself who are stranded here because airlines keep cancelling our flights would like some information & nophead we did rebook our flights earlier but they cancelled those.

I have sent an email to the Home Office in London because I am unable to get the British Consulate in Saint Cruze to answer the phone.

I have asked them why are backpackers in Peru & again cruise passengers in the USA being repatriated back to the UK when people who are in their at risk age 70+ are stranded at lot closer to home, they have replied & said they will get back to me with in 20 DAYS, so don't hold your breath, keep taking the vino.

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2020 »
The reason is they are only laying on special flights to places where there are no commercial flights flying.

There are still a few Spanish and German flights from Tenerife but I can understand why you don't want to use those. I think your best hope is that they stop flying as well and then the government might charter some UK direct flights.

However I can see TFS closing soon as there are only one of two flights per day now and I don't see any today.

Offline Edward Bear

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2020 »
My wife has been locked in in South Manchester for four weeks and had three flights cancelled back to her home in Tenerife. She has a flight booked for the third of May however we are holding our breath.
I am lead to believe that if your flight is booked two ways ( return) then the carrier is obliged to get you home. Jet2 must have different rules as it is like urinating into the wind getting sense out of these people.

Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2020 »
nophead, that does not add up, I am sure you can get flights from the USA & India, it appears you have to be in the news to get any action & their is NO mention at all of the airport or airspace being closed.

Edward Bear I know how you feel, we now want to go the other way Jet2 are not alone Ryanair & Tui are the same also Tui have now increased their prices from 50€ to 149€, don't worry about the passengers you have left stranded just rip them off when you can.

Don't expect your money back for cancelled flights, Ryanair promised ours back in 7 days it is now double that time & still no refund, also it has cost us an extra 1300.00 euro for extra accommodation.

I am glad the British Government are looking after their voters

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2020 »
It might not add up but I quoted you from Janet Anscombe's website who quotes the foreign office:

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Updated 2.30pm, 31/3: Despite the Foreign Secretary’s announcement, the British Embassy in Madrid has clarified the Government’s stance. They say:

After the Foreign Secretary’s statement yesterday, we’ve had many queries asking about repatriation flights from Spain. There are still commercial options running across Spain, so we are not planning repatriation flights.

I.e. the government expects you to get an internal flight to Spain and then from Spain to the UK as those flights are still running about once a day, although you might need to use Tenerife North.

Even airlines that have a duty of care to get you back can do that via another airline but they should pay for the tickets I think. That is if they don't go bust first. I imagine there will only be TUI and BA left after all of this.


Offline unhappy

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #26 on: April 05, 2020 »
So we risk the chance of catching Coronavirus in the airport here North or South then the airport in Spain & then the Uk let alone all the transfers the British Government must be bloody deluded or stupid and we say again the airlines cancelled flights for economic not Coronavirus reasons to fly us home.

Offline nophead

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #27 on: April 06, 2020 »
Yes it is a risk on a plane because its just a lottery who you end up next to and with that many people there is always somebody coughing.  They don't fly half empty planes to let you spread out.

When we fly we use First Defence to stop getting colds. When somebody near us started coughing we reached for it and started snorting and so did the couple next to us. Quite a lot of people were wearing masks and looking frightened.

We didn't catch anything, not even a cold.

If you are in the at risk group then flying doesn't seem compatible with the government advice to self isolate for 12 weeks. Being in a plane with hundreds of strangers is entirely the other end of the spectrum unless you wear hazmat suits.

Offline galeus

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #28 on: April 06, 2020 »
Thanks for that info. Nophead.
I've never heard of  'Vicks First Defence' before but am sure to buy one and take it on the plane next time I Travel.

Offline angiebabes

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Re: Corvid19 Graph
« Reply #29 on: April 06, 2020 »
I am sad to read how unhappy you are ‘unhappy’ that you have neither received refunds or reliable flights to get you back to UK. I thought I read earlier post of you  indicating that you had chosen to stay in Tenerife where it was safer. This sentiment is one I totally agree with and indeed is what we decided to do. If you think about it, ryanair staff are also human like us In that many of them have been laid off so no income. Those that are left, a skeleton staff, are working like crazy to deal with all the refunds etc., that people are entitled to. So having to wait some time for a refund doesn’t seem unreasonable.  I sympathise if you genuinely cannot afford to stay in your wonderful accommodation that you have enjoyed for some time, but if can you afford it, aren’t you safer staying here? Even if flights were available through tfs and you arrived back home virus free, do you want to be exposed to the half hearted lockdown some UK folk are following? We are totally impressed at the handling of this situation here in Tenerife, feel secure and safe, have food, water and comfort, so as long as it takes we will stay here.